Retail Experts Project Weak Sales Growth for Holidays
Two top experts have projected weak sales growth for the 2008 holiday season. The National Retail Federation and TNS Retail Forward Inc. both project softer sales over the 2007 holiday season.
The National Retail Federation or NRF is the world’s largest retail trade association. On September 23, 2008 the organization forecast that sales for the imminent 2008 holiday season would increase 2.2% this year to $470.4 billion. This meager increase is well below the 10 year average of 4.4% in sales growth equating to the smallest growth percentage since 2002.
TNS Retail Forward is a Columbus, Ohio-based market research firm. On September 18, 2008 the USA Today published an article entitled, “Worst holiday sales gains since ’01 loom” citing TNS Retail Forward as estimating “that retail sales this November and December will increase just 1.5%.” Furthermore, the company paints a dark retail picture by stating that the 2008 holiday season will be the “worst for stores since the 1.2% increase in 1991.”
Ray of Hope for E-commerce Sales
There is a ray of hope for E-commerce retailers. USA Today reported that both Forrester Research and the National Retail Federation’s shop.org reflected that almost “three-quarters of online retailers polled say online sales are better positioned to withstand a slowdown than in-store sales are.”
The NRF’s shop.org provides information to help all retailers prepare for the holiday season that includes a free download of the 2008 NRF Holiday Survival Kit. The section on online shopping is a positive incentive for Internet retailers with “Why Consumers Prefer to Shop Online Rather Than in Stores During the Holidays”. Reasons provided include:
- Want to shop online from work
- Gas prices
- Easier to compare products
- Better variety
- Easier to find items
- Free shipping offers
- Don’t want to fight crowds
- Convenience
In summary, the dismal holiday sales forecasts predict softer than normal increases, however, there is a ray of hope for Internet retailers. The challenge is to maximize on each and every sale.
On a side note, I went to Costco to purchase a Nintendo WII bundle this past week only to find that they are still sold out. I have been checking online at their Web site – only to find the “SOLD OUT” sign posted for the WII bundle. Bottom line: the right product = sales in an economic slump or not. With all the dismal forecasts, isn’t it great to hear some positive news?
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Tags: 2008 holiday forecast, E-commerce sales forecast, Internet holiday sales, Internet retailers, National Retail Federation, TNS Retail Forward